Should You Rely On Predictions To Choose Investments?

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Welcome to the 111th edition of the Inkosi Wealth Scoop!

In this episode, I’m going to talk all about prediction, particularly as it relates to investing.

My topic today might offend a few people, but my goal here is for you to make smarter investment decisions by being cognisant and sceptical about the predictions and opinions you hear in the media and everywhere.

We cover: 

  • How Economics was Taught
  • Who is Robert Shiller?
  • “Predictions are the Equivalent of Random Guesses”
  • “The Great Depression: A Diary”
  • Four Questions from Benjamin Roth
  • Three Kinds of Prediction
  • Don’t Believe in Forecasts
  • Final Thoughts

If you’re an investor who doesn’t want to lose money and find yourself in a dead-end investment because of the loud predictions people make, then this episode is for you! 

Show Notes:

00:00:00 Intro

00:02:30 How Economics was Taught

00:04:10 Who is Robert Shiller?

00:05:53 “Predictions are the Equivalent of Random Guesses”

00:07:15 “The Great Depression: A Diary”

00:08:22 Four Questions from Benjamin Roth

00:09:44 Three Kinds of Prediction

00:11:17 Don’t Believe in Forecasts

00:13:02 Final Thoughts

00:14:32 Outro

Hey guys, welcome back to the podcast. It is really awesome to have you back here with us.

Today, what I want to do is dive into a topic centred around this idea of predictions. I have absolutely no doubt that my topic today is going to offend a few people.

But what I’m really saddened about over and over again is the number of people who make investment decisions off the back of very loudly voiced predictions about what will or won’t happen.

These people ultimately end up either losing money or finding themselves in a dead-end investment from which they can’t exit without taking a haircut or that would cause them significant financial pain.

My motivation for today’s topic is that I want to see people start to make better decisions, which doesn’t put them in a situation where they have relied on something that really shouldn’t have been relied on. Read More

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